Mikel Arteta and Steven Pienaar are vital to the club’s success this season, with David Moyes having little to spend to advance Everton’s bid for Europe

Guardian writers’ prediction: 7th (NB: this is not necessarily Andy’s prediction, but the average of our writers’ tips)

Last season’s position: 8th

Odds to win the league: 150-1

It has been another quiet summer in the transfer market at Everton but, unusually, few are complaining. A return to Europe and the trophy David Moyes concedes is long overdue at Goodison Park is not beyond the realms of possibility should it stay that way.

Naturally there would be more exuberance in Liverpool 4 had Everton unveiled the top-class centre-forward or right midfielder the manager is searching for. Instead, there have been four inexpensive but not insignificant additions to a squad who lost just two of their final 24 league games last season, and plans have been announced for a £9m office complex behind a stadium that the club’s board of directors have conceded will not be vacated for the foreseeable future. Well, not unless the Chinese government seizes the land to build a giant Liver Bird’s Nest Stadium for their neighbours, but that’s a blog for another day.

This will not sit comfortably with many Evertonians, but there is genuine and justifiable optimism surrounding Moyes’s team for this season, though there is plenty of time for that to disintegrate and the natural order to return. The final 27 days of this transfer window promise a premature “squeaky bum” period for the club.

Moyes’s priority for this summer is no secret; he discussed it frequently towards the end of last season. “I’m just looking to try and get our squad stronger and keep the players we have got,” he would say. And so far, so good, although until Mikel Arteta and Steven Pienaar sign the contract extensions offered to them, the Everton manager will not rest easy.

Unlike Tim Cahill, Jack Rodwell and Leighton Baines, the two midfielders whose careers were rescued by Moyes and who have developed into Everton’s most creative outlets have not committed their futures to Goodison amid the promise of riches elsewhere. Both are in strong bargaining positions. There has been no post-World Cup queue of suitors for Pienaar but, with 12 months remaining on his existing deal, the South African will not struggle to secure a lucrative pre-contract agreement from 1 January and could depart this summer should a substantial bid materialise.

Arteta has two years remaining and would become Everton’s highest-paid player on £75,000 a week should he decide to stay. The Spaniard, conscious of Everton’s impact on his career and his place in the club’s affections, has neither rejected nor accepted the offer. The possibility of a move to Barcelona or Manchester City should either club fail to land their current transfer targets indicates why he is in no rush to decide. There is also the distraction of Arsenal’s interest in Phil Jagielka, although the England defender, awarded a new five-year contract while he recovered from a cruciate ligament injury last summer, has shown no inclination to depart.

Keep all three, add either a proven finisher or a midfielder with the energy and quality of Landon Donovan, and Everton will be confident of entering the mix for Champions League qualification. Lose any, and the incremental progress under Moyes will be seriously threatened.

In Arteta and Marouane Fellaini, Everton have a potential central midfield pairing to rival any in the Premier League, but they have rarely been seen together due to injuries. Rodwell will get more opportunity to develop his immense potential this season, Seamus Coleman, with the experience of featuring in Blackpool’s promotion side behind him, could also make a breakthrough at right-back and Diniyar Bilyaletdinov, one of the few in the team with an eye for a defence-piercing pass, should also benefit from his first summer break in almost two years.

Everton’s one major gripe this summer has been the defection of the 20-year-old midfielder Dan Gosling, who exploited the club’s failure to put a contract offer in writing to secure a free transfer to Newcastle United. It is instructive, however, that their disappointment concerns the impact of Gosling’s departure on Moyes’s transfer budget, not on his squad.

But for the disruption caused by several serious injuries at the start of last season, coupled with Joleon Lescott’s protracted transfer to Manchester City, Everton rather than Roberto Mancini’s big spenders might have presented Tottenham Hotspur with the fiercest challenge for fourth place. Unless bids emerge for Pienaar and Arteta in the coming weeks – and so far Everton have received and rejected just two for their players this summer, a £6m offer for Yakubu Aiyegbeni from West Ham United and a £9m bid from Arsenal for Jagielka two months ago – they will not face the same hindrances this time.

Converting chances into victories was a problem for Everton even during their impressive finish last season, and it is asking a lot of the former Leeds United striker Jermaine Beckford to step out of League One and provide the remedy on his own. Assistance is required but, given the choice, it is safe to assume Moyes would happily shut the transfer window this afternoon.

EvertonPremier LeagueAndy Hunterguardian.co.uk

• Meeting with Aston Villa highlights struggles on Merseyside
• ‘I’m like an elephant,’ Moyes warns underperforming stars

Not every storm cloud evaporated over Merseyside last Sunday. While Rafael Benítez bid adieu to another Anfield crisis with victory over Manchester United, David Moyes was digesting an 86th-minute defeat at Bolton that left Everton three points above the relegation zone. A third away defeat in six days followed at Tottenham Hotspur in the Carling Cup. Not for the first time, a season where Moyes had envisaged taking the next step is being dismissed as a wasted opportunity and, unlike his Liverpool rival, he has yet to conjure a contrary response.

Aston Villa are the perfect opponents to heighten Moyes’ worries at Goodison Park today. For the past two seasons Martin O’Neill’s team have strengthened as the Scot would have wished, flirted with Champions League qualification, but ultimately finished one place below Everton. This term began with both clubs harbouring similar expectations and problems, Moyes and O’Neill embarking on a late transfer trolley dash for defenders, but their paths have since veered in opposite directions.

“I can’t see this season as a lost cause,” the Everton manager said. “I get the feeling people will see our season as a lost cause because of the improvement made by Manchester City, Tottenham, Aston Villa and Sunderland, but I can’t. Maybe, without knowing, we are in the process of building a new side. Maybe we are building again and are in the throes of transition just now. It might well be that we finish mid-table but it would be wrong of me to have that as my ambition. My ambition is to finish as high as I possibly can. That hasn’t altered.”

Moyes’ defiance has not been matched by his players in this campaign, one that opened with a 6-1 humiliation at home to Arsenal in the midst of the Joleon Lescott transfer saga, but which has yielded two more points than at the same stage last season. Everton were also out of the Carling Cup and Uefa Cup at this point 12 months ago, before finishing fifth again and reaching the FA Cup final.

Injuries are the principal reason for the stalled progress, with 10 or 11 casualties the recent norm, and why Moyes refused to lambast the inexperienced and disjointed team that slumped to a record 5-0 European defeat at Benfica. It is not the only factor, however. A newly assembled defence, basic individual errors and the poor form of last season’s key contributors, such as the £15m record signing Marouane Fellaini, have added to the malaise.

“I definitely expect more from the players available,” Moyes added. “A lot of them are playing out of position and doing jobs that are unusual for them but I can’t make excuses, they’ve got to play better no matter where they play.

“We did it last year. We probably had our best spell last season when we had no centre-forwards and people playing out of position, so why should it be any different this year? I try not to look for excuses. I try to make people accountable for whatever job they do. We haven’t defended as well as we’ve done in the past. Over the years we’ve been pretty solid and hard to play against, but I also think we’ve missed a lot of chances. It is at both ends at the moment.

“We’re always looking for a good result and if it can turn your fortune, then that is what we would like it to do. This week has not been particularly good and we were disappointed, but probably the bigger disappointment was that we didn’t take full points against Wolves and Stoke at home.”

The Everton manager has a chilling warning for any senior player who feels his position is secure due to the size of the club’s casualty list. Moyes said: “I would hate to think that was the way our boys thought but subconsciously maybe there is an element of that. And if that is the case they are going to be in for a fright when the injury situation changes. I’m like an elephant, I don’t forget. I don’t forget if people don’t perform and they let me down.”

On paper at least, Moyes arguably has the strongest squad of his Everton tenure at his disposal but denies any claim he is under added pressure as a result. “Managers are always under pressure to get a result but, in my role as a football manager at this club, I don’t feel under pressure, no,” he states.

“It’s about that Saturday night feeling. If you’ve won you can enjoy a meal with the wife and a bottle of wine if you fancy it, or there’s the alternative, which is to pull the curtains and get a Chinese in and hope nobody sees you when you’ve lost. There have been a few nights with the curtains drawn this season, that’s for sure.”

EvertonDavid MoyesPremier Leagueguardian.co.uk